Pre-Election Day Thoughts

Updated: Nov 3, 2020

Unfolding before our eyes is a historic election. Americans seem to be very divided, determined and enthusiastic to cast their vote. U.S. Elections Project reports that, as of today, 98 million Americans have turned in their ballots in the 50 states and District of Columbia.

At the forefront of this election is the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as both candidates strive to obtain 270 electoral votes needed to win. Out of the 50 states, 20 are red or Republican leaning, 17 are blue or Democratic leaning and 13 are Swing (also known as Battleground or Purple states). By leaning it is meant that the respective candidate is almost certainly expected to win the state electoral votes. Accordingly, going into the election, Trump has 126 and Biden has 213 electoral votes. The remaining 199 votes are up for grabs in the swing states. To get a better understanding and feel for the current situation, we compiled early voting data and recent polling numbers for each of the 13 states:

To draw any conclusions about the outcome of the election from this data would be premature. Only three states report complete early voting statistics; Democrats lead Republicans by a narrow margin (1% to 4%). This lead is eclipsed by the large Independent votes. Further, historically many more Republicans vote on election day than Democrats.

Several major factors will determine the final outcome of the 2020 election, including how large the Republican turnout is on election day, which way the Independent voters swing, and Democrats continued enthusiasm. President Lincoln suitably said, “Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will have to sit on their blisters.” Hopefully we have learned our lesson.

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